2019 Predictions

I’ve made predictions for the past several years, and here are my predictions for 2019, a bit late. I’ve noticed that when discussing politics or difficult subjects with other people with whom I have strong differences, a possible avenue of understanding is to make a prediction about the world with odds. Most people don’t accept these bets or predictions, which I think are one of the best ways to test different models of the world against each other. Nonetheless, I think it’s personally beneficial to list predictions and accompanying odds each year to see test my model of the world.

  1. Trump Approval Rating end of year <50% (Gallup): 95%
  2. Trump Approval Rating end of year <45% (Gallup): 90%
  3. Trump Approval Rating end of year < 40% (Gallup): 70%
  4. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%
  5. No single terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%
  6. The UK will not leave the EU this year: 80%
  7. North Korea will still be controlled by the Kim dynasty: 95%
  8. North Korea will not conduct a nuclear test this year: 60%
  9. North Korea will not conduct a missile test this year: 60%
  10. North Korea will not agree to give up nuclear weapons entirely, contingent on US troops staying in the Korean peninsula: 99%.
  11. North Korea will not agree to give up nuclear weapons as a result of any negotiations: 90%
  12. Yemeni civil war will still be happening: 70%
  13. S&P 500 2019 >10% growth (from 2506 on Jan 1): 60%
  14. S&P 500 will be between 2400 and 3100: 80% (80% confidence interval)
  15. Unemployment rate December 2019 < 6%: 80%
  16. Unemployment rate December 2019 < 5%: 70%
  17. WTI Crude Oil price up by 10% (from $45.41): 70%
  18. Price of Bitcoin in dollars up over the year (Coinbase – 3823 Jan 1): 70%
  19. Price of Bitcoin < $8,000 (does not double): 60%
  20. Price of Bitcoin > $1900 (does not lose half value): 70%
  21. Price of Bitcoin < $12,000 (does not triple): 70%
  22. Drivechain opcodes not soft-forked into Bitcoin: 80%
  23. No drivechains soft-forked into existence: 99%
  24. US government does not make Bitcoin ownership or exchange illegal: 95%
  25. Self-driving cars will not be available this year for general purchase: 95%
  26. Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
  27. I will not be able to buy trips on self-driving cars from Uber/Lyft/Waymo in a location I am living: 95%
  28. I will not be able to order groceries on self-driving cars in a location I am living: 90%
  29. I will not be able to buy a trip on a self-driving car from Uber/Lyft/Waymo without a backup employee in the car anywhere in the US: 80%
  30. The artificial general intelligence alignment problem will not be seen as the most important problem facing humanity: 99%
  31. Humans will not be in lunar orbit in 2018: 99%
  32. SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch again this year: 90%
  33. SpaceX will bring humans to low earth orbit: 60%
  34. SpaceX will test the “Starship” mock up this year: 70%
  35. Mexican government does not pay for wall: 99% (lol)
  36. Border wall construction not complete by end of 2018: 99%
  37. National Debt increases by >$1 trillion (from
    $21,943,897,000,000): 90%
  38. There will not be a significant decrease in trade barriers between US and China from pre-2017 tariff levels: 90%
  39. Democratic RCP front runner will not be Bernie Sanders: 80%
  40. Democratic RCP front runner will not be Kamala Harris: 80%
  41. Democratic RCP front runner will not be Beto O’Rourke: 80%
  42. Trump not removed from office or resign: 95%
  43. Trump not impeached: 70%
  44. No CRISPR edited babies will be born: 80%
  45. No full year US government budget will be passed (only several months spending): 90%
  46. Some tariffs raised: 90%
  47. Trump administration does not file a lawsuit against any news organization for defamation: 90%

I’d like to comment on every prediction, but I’m afraid it would take too much time. The predictions I find most interesting are whether the UK will leave the EU. I’m going by what predictions markets say, but I’m not really sure it will play out with only a few weeks to go and no deal. I’m also quite interested in the Democratic Presidential primary race, but I’m afraid the nomination will be trending towards someone pretty left wing. I’m also interested in whether Trump will be removed from office. I put the chances of Trump being impeached at 30% to stay in line with prediction markets, but my gut is that I should put that chance even lower.