Grading 2018 Predictions

I make predictions at the beginning of every year, and at the end of the year, I grade them. Science and the gathering of knowledge requires making predictions to test your models and see how they work in the real world. Most pundits on TV make predictions without weights attached to them. I’ve placed levels of confidence for each prediction with the odds I would bet on those outcomes in the vein of Bryan Caplan. I’ve created a chart at the end to show my calibration versus perfect calibration.

Predictions for 2018:

World Events

  1. Trump Approval Rating end of year <50% (Gallup): 95%
  2. Trump Approval Rating end of year <45% (Gallup): 90%
  3. Trump Approval Rating end of year < 40% (Gallup): 80%
  4. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%
  5. No single terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%
  6. The UK will not fully leave the EU this year: 99%
  7. No country will leave the Euro (adopt another currency as their national currency): 80%
  8. North Korea will still be controlled by the Kim dynasty: 95%
  9. North Korea will conduct a nuclear test this year: 70%
  10. North Korea will conduct a missile test this year: 95%
  11. Yemeni civil war will still be happening: 70%
  12. S&P 500 2018 >10% growth: 60%
  13. S&P 500 will be between 2500 and 3200: 80% (80% confidence interval)
  14. Unemployment rate December 2018 < 6%: 80%
  15. Unemployment rate December 2018 < 5%: 60%
  16. WTI Crude Oil price up by 10%: 60%
  17. Price of Bitcoin > $10,000: 70%
  18. Price of Bitcoin < $30,000: 60%
  19. Price of Bitcoin < $100,000: 70%
  20. Lightning Network available (I can complete a transaction on LN): 80%
  21. Drivechain development “complete”: 70%
  22. Drivechain opcodes not soft-forked into Bitcoin: 70%
  23. No drivechains soft-forked into existence: 95%
  24. US government does not make Bitcoin ownership or exchange illegal: 90%
  25. Self-driving cars will not be available this year for general purchase: 95%
  26. Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
  27. I will not be able to buy trips on self-driving cars from Uber/Lyft in a location I am living: 95%
  28. I will not be able to buy a trip on a self-driving car from Uber/Lyft without a backup employee in the car anywhere in the US: 90%
  29. Humans will not be in lunar orbit in 2018: 95%
  30. SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will attempt to launch this year (can fail on launch): 95%
  31. SpaceX will not bring humans to low earth orbit: 60%
  32. No SpaceX rockets explode without launching their payload to orbit: 60%
  33. Mexican government does not pay for wall: 99%
  34. Border wall construction not complete by end of 2018: 99%
  35. Some increased spending on immigration through expanding CBP, ICE, or the border fence: 80% (oh yeah)
  36. No full year US government budget will be passed (only several months spending): 90%
  37. US National Debt to increase by more than 2017 increase (~$500B): 70%
  38. Increase in spending or action on Drug War (e.g. raiding marijuana dispensaries, increased spending on DEA, etc): 70%
  39. Some tariffs raised: 90% (a lot on China)
  40. The US will not significantly change its relationship to NAFTA: 70%
  41. Federal government institutes some interference with state level legal marijuana: 70% (hard to say)
  42. Trump administration does not file a lawsuit against any news organization for defamation: 90%
  43. Mexican government does not pay for wall 99% (repeat)
  44. Trump not removed from office (also no Trump resignation): 95%
  45. Democrats do not win control of Senate: 60%
  46. Democrats win control of House: 60%

Postlibertarian

  1. postlibertarian.com to have 10 new posts by July 1, 2018: 80%
  2. postlibertarian.com to have 20 new posts this year: 80%
  3. Postlibertarian to have more hits than last year: 70%
  • Of items I marked as 60% confident, 7 were correct out of 9.
  • Of items I marked as 70% confident, 7 were correct out of 11.
  • Of items I marked as 80% confident, 7 were correct out of 8.
  • Of items I marked as 90% confident, 6 were correct out of 6.
  • Of items I marked as 95% confident, 9 were correct out of 10.
  • Of items I marked as 99% confident, 4 were correct out of 4.

It appears I was pretty underconfident on my 60% predictions. Interestingly, that’s also where I did worst last year. There were only 9 total predictions at 60% confidence, so the ideal would have been to have 5 of those correct. Of those, I likely should have been more confident on SpaceX missing its then current estimate of launching a crewed mission by the end of 2018. Indeed, I’m not sure what I’d predict their chances are of launching a crewed flight in 2019, as I couldn’t imagine it being higher than 70% right now, but we’ll see. My bitcoin price predictions were again somewhat laughable as they were last year.

I suspect I have a systemic calibration issue with 60% confidence level predictions. Over the past two years I’ve been 17/22 or 77.3%. which is distinctly higher than my 70% confidence predictions. Still, that’s not a huge sample size, but I’m not sure exactly how I can be relatively correct or even slightly overconfident in my 70% predictions, but be *more often correct* about my 60% predictions which I don’t claim to know as much about.

I hope to post my 2019 predictions soon, but unfortunately my day job has had to take priority early this year. If you’d like to combat the opportunity cost of me working on this blog instead of real paying work, feel free to send me some Bitcoin at the address in the sidebar (
13bhBWyRDAePCNEejZoxCqeFvdXyiFQfYc ), or if Bitcoin is too annoying, just share your favorite of my blog posts from last year with your friends on or off the internet. Thanks!