The Economics of Home Alone

Last night I watched Home Alone, the 1990 hit film about a boy who is accidentally left at home and defends himself from a couple of dumb burglars. I couldn’t help thinking about many of the interesting ways life has changed in the last twenty years.

1. VCRs were worth stealing. It’s hilarious that the crooks are excited about breaking into the McCallister home because of its “stereos” and “VCRs.” VCRs had become much cheaper and popular by 1990 (Somewhere around 65-70% of households owned one), and based on multiple anecdotes from highly scientific Google searches it looks like they were available around the $200 range (about $357 in 2012 dollars), though more expensive ones existed. Common, valuable, easy to steal.

Today, of course, you can get VCRs for $20 or less at thrift stores. Almost 80% of households own the newer DVD players, of which numerous models exist for under $50. Blu-Ray DVD players are easily found in the $100 range. So after 20 years, more households have much better technology that is much cheaper to buy, even before factoring inflation. Sometimes capitalism is awesome like that.

2. Pizzas apparently haven’t got more expensive. Kevin orders a cheese pizza that costs $11.80. I’m having trouble finding the actual cost of a pizza in 1990, although there is this Pizza Hut commercial offering additional pizzas for $4 for a limited time (it doesn’t say what “Regular Price” was, though it’s implied it was high enough to make the special exciting).

Naturally prices vary by chain, location, and specials, but you can still find pizzas for around the same price before inflation, although perhaps we should allow some wiggle room for size and unverified data. It’s also another piece of evidence against those who claim “real inflation” is way higher… pizza delivery hasn’t even doubled after 20 years!

3. Pay phones were a pain. I think we often underestimate how much utility cell phones have added to our lives. The pay phone scene was implausibly exaggerated for 1990, but I don’t think you could even film it today.

Cell phones are so common today that three-quarters of the world has access to one. There are now exponentially easier ways to get in touch with your kids or get someone to check on them – even over Christmas. You don’t have to kick people off the phone, either, although you can still fight over charging stations. In a recent experimental high tech twist, New York City is turning its leftover payphones into wifi hotspots.

4. US demographics have changed. Home Alone concerns the lives of two large, well-off, white, nuclear families. I don’t think there were any blacks, Hispanics, or Asians in the film, either. In 1990, 76% of the country was “non-Hispanic white”; today that has dropped to 63.7%. Last year, white newborns were a minority for the first time in history, and whites are projected to become an overall minority by 2042.

The large families were abnormal even for 1990; the fertility rate of around 2.0 has been pretty flat since then. But there are fewer and later marriages, and fewer kids within marriages, too: “The share of births by unmarried women has risen from 26% to 41% since 1990.” All of these trends have slow but large effects on all kinds of economic data.

5. It was easier to get on a plane. I’m sure the hasty boarding scene was exaggerated even for 1990, but the lack of a TSA is impossible to miss.

6. Burglary has fallen. It’s well-known that overall crime has fallen significantly since the 1990’s, but let’s look at burglary statistics for a specific example. In 1990 there were over 3.07 million counts of burglary in the US. By 2010, that number had fallen to 2.16 million, even as population increased. The overall rate has dropped 56%. Thankfully, the film’s premise is less relatable than ever.

Overall the modern United States looks like a safer, more advanced, and more exciting country than it did in 1990. It also has more government and faster and larger changes, and thus perhaps more uncertainty. Did I get anything above wrong? What did I miss?