Rooting For Divided Government

I’m a political junkie who likes to keep up with the latest polls. I try not to put too much stock in them because I know how quickly they can change, but it’s interesting to observe the conventional wisdom as it changes. Most of the US political discussion right now is focused on the Presidential race, such as who is going to win the Republican nomination and whether or not that person can defeat Obama. The majority of the head-to-head polls so far show Obama tying or beating Romney, Obama beating Paul by a bit more, Obama beating Santorum by a bit more, and Obama beating Gingrich by even more. Of course, there are dozens of things that could change that landscape in the next nine months, besides the fact that it’s not a true popular vote and we don’t have enough state polling yet to start projecting which states are safely red or blue in the electoral college math. I’m certainly not going to do any arrogant predicting about what the people will decide because I think I know how they feel about Obama or Romney or whoever, but it definitely looks like a plausible possibility that Obama will be re-elected.

But, of course, that is only one race. Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for election, as well as one-third of the Senate seats. The polling is early here as well, but it definitely looks like a plausible possibility that the GOP will not only retain the House but will regain a majority in the Senate. This would establish a GOP-controlled Congress and Democratic-controlled Presidency for the first time since Clinton in the mid-to-late 1990’s. And I’m trying to decide if this is something I want to root for.

I know, I know, as a conservative I’m supposed to think that Obama is a dangerous big-government socialist and that there is nothing more important than kicking him out of office. But what would his presidency look like if the Republicans controlled not one chamber of Congress, but both of them?

See, I generally grew up viewing Bill Clinton as bad because he was a Democrat and Democrats were bad. I remember thinking as a young boy, “If only Clinton had had his Lewinsky scandal before he was re-elected! Then he would have served only one term!” But I also remember the surprise I felt as I came to realize and admit that the Clinton years were a relatively prosperous time for the United States. I mean, you can argue about who or what was responsible for the budget surplus, but one way or another we had a budget surplus! And this did not happen under a Republican president; it happened under a Democratic president and a Republican Congress. I grew to view the Republicans through jaded eyes and saw some of the dangerous effects of what happens when one party controls it all, first under Bush and then under Obama. I saw the Democrats lose their control of one chamber of Congress in 2010, and I saw Democratic agendas being foiled – and the unemployment rate start falling. I saw arguments about uncertainty and business and that divided government can be a great thing because it severely reduces the number of continually changing rules about the economy that make it hard for businesses to start and expand and grow the economy.

Or is this all just a convenient telling of a complicated history that involves many complex factors and lag times, where the party labels of the leaders really have little to do with the outcomes? Quite possibly. But even so, I’m beginning to think that it’s plausible that Obama + GOP Congress could be better for the country than Romney + GOP Congress, especially with my bias towards small government and my cynicism towards the Republican party.

I can even explain why Clinton + GOP in the 90’s was so good even though Bush + Democrats in 2006-2008 was one of the worst economic periods for our country in recent memory. If Democrats like big, active government, and Republicans pretend to dislike big, active government to oppose the Democrats but forget about it when they are in charge, then it makes perfect sense that a Republican president and a Democratic congress would lead to a big, active government mess. Maybe it takes a Democratic president for Republicans to remember the old rhetoric about small government, and it takes Republicans in congress during a Democratic presidency to actually be able to stop big, active government while they remember that they still oppose it. If you believe that Romney is a corporate stooge with questionable conservative credentials who’s really no better than Obama, might it not be better to let Obama do pretty much the same things Romney would so the GOP will oppose it instead of go along with it? Or is that much cynicism too strong to be healthy?

Maybe Romney + GOP has a real chance of repealing the health care bill. Maybe Romney + GOP has a better chance of making hard decisions about the future finances of our country. But it certainly won’t involve higher taxes. What if they just focus on cutting favorite Democrat programs without reforming the big issues? What if it just enhances the tired old rhetoric that Republicans don’t care about the poor? What if the GOP government does all this while still increasing the role of government in our lives, with all the hypocrisy highlighted for all to see?

Now what if Obama + GOP stumbles upon solutions by hardly doing anything. What if Obama vetoes any extensions of the “Bush” tax cuts because he no longer has a re-election to lose or a Democratic Senate passing them? Sure, Obama will continue to complain that the obstructionist Republicans in Congress are preventing him from doing anything to make the economy better, but what if it gets better anyway?

Of course, this could all be naive hogwash. I could be all wrong. Unimagined things could happen in the coming years that could render the question of who controls the presidency completely irrelevant. And even without any of those black or white swans, I still can’t predict with any reasonable certainty how these politicians will respond to all of the completely predictable and mundane stuff that is going to happen. I am not declaring with any certainty that a completely divided government would be better than the current partially divided government or a potential future single-party government. But I can say that there is enough uncertainty that it seems plausible to me that it could be better. So, take heart, all ye Obama haters who don’t think Romney is worthy of your vote. Maybe it will all be just fine.