How confident should we be? People tend to be overconfident. One way to figure out if our confidence levels are correct is to test our calibration levels by making predictions and seeing how many of them pan out. Inspired by Slate Star Codex’s predictions, here are my predictions and accompanying confidence levels. For the sake of convenience I will choose from confidence levels of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95% or 99%. All predictions are by December 31, 2016 unless noted otherwise.
Postlibertarian Specific
- Postlibertarian to have >10 additional posts by July 1, 2016: 70%
- Postlibertarian Twitter to have more than 240 followers: 70%
- Postlibertarian.com to have >10k page loads in 2016: 50%
- The predictions on this page will end up being underconfident: 60%
World Events
- Liberland will be recognized by <5 UN members: 99%
- Free State Project to reach 20,000 person goal in 2016: 50%
- ISIS to still exist: 80%
- ISIS to kill < 100 Americans 2016: 80%
- US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 80%
- No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 80%
- Donald Trump will not be Republican Nominee: 80%
- Hillary Clinton to be Democratic Nominee: 90%
- Republicans to hold Senate: 60%
- Republicans to hold House: 80%
- Republicans to win Presidential Election: 50%
- I will vote for the Libertarian Presidential Candidate: 70%
- S&P 500 level end of year < 2500: 70%
- Unemployment rate December 2016 < 6% : 70%
- WTI Crude Oil price < $50 : 80%
- Price of Bitcoin > $500: 60%
- Price of Bitcoin < $1000: 80%
- Sentient General AI will not be created this year: 99%
- Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
- Customers will not be able to rent trips on self-driving cars from Uber/ Lyft: 90%
- Humans will not land on moon by end of 2016: 95%
- Edward Snowden will not be pardoned by end of Obama Administration: 80%