The Government’s Role In Urban Cycles of Poverty

I recently read an incredible book by David Kennedy called Don’t Shoot: One Man, A Street Fellowship, and The End of Violence In Inner-City America. It is full of amazing insights into the perspectives of law enforcement and urban neighborhood communities, and how their misunderstandings of each other lead to actions that perpetuate those misunderstandings.

Kennedy outlined a paradigm that he claims is “common currency” in many poor, black neighborhoods. In this paradigm, he says, America is engaged in a conspiracy to subdue blacks. After the civil rights era, the CIA invented crack. The government keeps trucking it into the ghettos to draw young blacks into the trade so officers can keep arresting them.

When Kennedy first ran into this paradigm, he laughed it off as craziness. But he came to see reasons that made it an attractive theory to people with their experiences and knowledge: America really did overtly subject blacks by law until fairly recently; the crack epidemic devastated the ghetto; the community sees white folks drive in to buy drugs but only sees black kids getting arrested for it; they see a powerful American government with global military and surveillance capabilities, concluding that they must not be stopping the drug trade because they don’t want to stop it.

Once Kennedy understood the logic within this paradigm, he saw how law enforcement actions perpetuate it, and how it affects the community’s coldness toward police and the police’s coldness toward the community. By taking the paradigm seriously, he came up with ideas to address its fatal flaws, such as having law enforcement build up cases against dealer kids and tell them they could arrest them but they wouldn’t if they quit, which proved to the community the police wasn’t out to get them, which motivated them to help keep new dealers off the streets, which proved to the police the community really didn’t want the drugs either, which all in all literally turned dangerous neighborhoods into safe neighborhoods within weeks (!!!).

There’s a lot more fantastic insight and brilliant details about all of this in the book (seriously, read it), but I want to focus on this urban paradigm that America, particularly its government, is still systematically engaged in a racist agenda to subject the black man. I’ve stumbled onto parts of this idea before, but it’s still largely unfamiliar to me, Kennedy’s depiction is the most comprehensive I’ve ever seen. As an outsider, I can’t say if he’s being fair to the paradigm, and what sorts of variations exist and the various reasons people believe in various parts of it. But it seems safe to say that the paradigm exists, and is held by a non-negligible percentage of the American population.

I find it extremely interesting to compare this paradigm to one with which I am more familiar. Many conservatives also like to blame the government for perpetuating cycles of urban poverty, but for opposite reasons. The government is giving away too many handouts! Food stamps, Medicaid, subsidized housing, “Obama phones”… the list goes on and on. The “takers” keep taking from the government so they can lay around with their TVs and video game consoles while demanding even more goodies paid for by hard-working taxpayers who are not nearly as lazy as the folks suffering from the disincentives of ugly marginal tax rates.

Before anybody jumps in with some Doubtlessly Qualified Opinions on the relative truth values of these paradigms, I just want to marvel at the tension.

In one corner, we have a bunch of Americans who are convinced that poor people are poor because the government is doing so much to hurt them. In the other corner, we have a bunch of Americans who are convinced that poor people are poor because the government is doing so much to help them!

Isn’t that kind of… beautiful, in a strangely partisan political way? Isn’t that such a great example of how people with different experiences can come to such different conclusions about the same issue?

Please don’t mistake me for implying some sort of parity between the paradigms. I strongly believe the urban conspiracy paradigm is fundamentally flawed. But the opposing paradigm does not even allow for that paradigm to exist, right? (Well, at least without assuming the complete irrationality of the participants. But I have long believed it too simple to write off people on “other sides” as evil/stupid; most people operate with biases but act rationally based on those biases, and Kennedy’s book confirms the rationality of the participants enough for me.) If the government really is helping poor people so much, how could the paradigm that the government is hurting them even get off the ground? What does the mere continuing existence of that paradigm say about the weaknesses of the other?

I have some preliminary ideas, slowly coagulating in bits and pieces – a comment about a Charles Murray book here, a reference to 90’s welfare reform there. I suspect the “ample social safety net” does not actually catch the “poor” nearly as efficiently as some conservatives (perhaps surprisingly) seem to imagine that it does. Maybe some services require addresses; many people who live in poverty are transient, moving between houses and apartments or nothing at all with different family members and friends as living situations change. Maybe some services require going to city buildings; many poor have limited transportation options. Maybe some services require waiting in long lines, verifying income status, social security cards, whatever; many working poor do not have a lot of spare time, maybe they do not know where their social security card is. Now soak all that in the general inefficiency and ineptitude of the incentives we call “government,” mix in some mistakes and lost paperwork and more long lines to fix them… hmm, maybe it shouldn’t be surprising if a lot of poor people don’t exactly see the government as a Clear and Shining Beacon of Everlasting Free Goodies (That Could Lift Them Out Of Poverty If Only They Weren’t So Lazy).

Of course, since I’ve never been poor, and I’ve picked up most of my conservative ideas of how the government helps the poor from conservative people who have never been poor, I don’t even know how to know how close I am to the right track of what government-poverty relations have ever looked like, much less how they look in 2014. I mean, I know there’s like forty million people on food stamps. That’s got to count for something, right? But there are huge gaps in understanding. I’m having my eyes opened to previously incomprehensible paradigms that are helping me fill them.

I Was Wrong About Obamacare

In the late 2000’s, I was very wrong about hyperinflation. I had unfounded confidence in a flawed view of the world which made me fall for simple projections peddled by confident people. In fact, I was very wrong about the Federal Reserve in general; I believed their responses to the crisis would quickly backfire with unintended consequences in a vicious feedback loop that certainly did not allow for a 2014 with record stocks, low unemployment, and no inflation – regardless of what may yet occur. Fortunately my risk aversion kept me from ever spending more than a few hundred dollars on silver.

In the early 2010’s, I was less confident about many things. But this blog has dutifully preserved a major mistake I must now confess: I was very wrong about Obamacare.

Two years ago, I fully expected that by now the law’s utter failure would be readily apparent. All the law’s interventions would be backfiring on a huge scale. The cost of plans would be increasing enormously. Insurers would be backing out. There would be undeniable negative effects on employment and the general economy. Every exception, delay, tweak, and twist of the Rune Goldberg machine would reverberate through the rest of the parts, unraveling in a vicious feedback loop of increasing interventions and unintended consequences.

But as I joined the rousing cries of the anti-government crusade, I started to look around, noticing that the looming Obamacare apocalypse didn’t seem to be getting any closer on the horizon. I started noticing that everybody was just appealing to the future. So I shut up and waited. And the future still isn’t here.

Sure, there are little stories all over the place of discontent. I certainly wouldn’t say the law’s been a roaring success. But a hundred million people didn’t lose their plans. Everybody didn’t see their premiums double. The people didn’t rise up and take to the streets in outrage. For the most part the healthcare industry and all the people in it seem to be plodding along pretty much about the same as before.

The Speak-O

Now this doesn’t mean conservatives weren’t right about the law’s problems. Jon Gruber’s YouTube highlight reel has been confirming things Republicans have been asserting for years: the cost analysis was gamed, the details were deliberately, opaquely rushed, etc, etc. And Gruber’s attempt to pass off his clear defense of the clear subsidy language as a “speak-o” is the epitome of intellectual dishonesty.

Seriously, guys. A speak-o, if it’s like a typo, would be when you say a word and the context of the speech makes it clear you mean the opposite. Example: “I think Rand Paul could go all the way in 2016 for the Republicans and take votes from Democrats. I think Hillary will fade for the Democrats and Paul’s coalition will expand the Republican base. I’m a pundit so I know things. And that’s why I think a Democrat will win the White House.”

It’s clear from context that the intended word in the last sentence is “Republican,” and the speaker just mixed it up. But if somebody had actually said “Republican” there, and after a Democrat victory tried to convince people that in the speech he was clearly predicting a Democrat win while making a “speak-o” he would be laughably dismissed. If a “speak-o” means you can simply claim what you really said is the opposite of what you really said when it’s politically convenient to do so, then I’ve got a new campaign strategy for Todd Akin.

The most charitable explanation I can think of is that the subsidy language really was a mistake made by non-Gruber-people, but then Gruber assumed it was real and invented motives for it as he carefully and logically explained the reasoning behind it. But that’s not what Gruber said happened, either.

So if you’re still with me, it looks like Republicans were right about all the problems behind the law; they’ve just been wrong about how terrible the consequences of those problems would be.

The Rule of Law vs. The Rule of Man

If the Supreme Court accepts the previous version of Gruber’s argument about the subsidies, it would be an interesting consequence on the law itself. After a few years of incessant “rule of man” interventions to keep the thing moving, the “rule of law” would finally stick a fork in a law that was initially passed with “rule of man” corruption. Or maybe it wouldn’t. What do I know?

The Financial Pearl Harbor Scam

Sometimes I get advertising emails from Newsmax, a conservative organization that is generally too dogmatic for my tastes. Last week I got one warning me about a “financial Pearl Harbor” that was going to come within “60 days” and that I needed to hurry up and click on this link to watch a video to learn how to protect me and my family.

I’ve seen this kind of imminent warning floating around the Internet for awhile, but I was pretty sure I’d been seeing it for more than 60 days. So the fact that they were still peddling it made me decide to click on it and watch the entire 40-minute video just to see how full of crap it was – and what they were trying to sell.

Well, they were trying to sell something, though it wasn’t completely full of crap. It’s largely based around the book Currency Wars by James Rickards, although to stop you from just checking that book out from the library for free, you conveniently have to buy Newsmax’s special package that gets you the extra “unpublished” “controversial” chapter. Naturally the video is pretty bullish on gold, although to stop you from just buying your own gold you have to get this package to learn about five specific countries to invest in because their currencies or markets are heavily tied to gold or something.

The video is basically high fructose corn syrup for gullible, paranoid, hard-money conservatives, carefully manufactured sugar designed to hit the sweet spot that opens their wallets. It gives them just enough Turkish Delight to convince them there’s a whole castle filled with it for a couple hundred bucks.

But even the persuasive mechanisms have contradictions for anyone who stops to think about it for even a minute. The video combines public knowledge with supposed secretive insider information (a standard conspiratist tactic). But it claims Rickards is leaking classified info that no one in the government wants anybody to know, while simultaneously claiming that some of Rickard’s info was so top-secret that he had to get it cleared before publishing it in the available materials! Both claims are meant to lend credibility to the authenticity and importance of the material, but together they are contradictory… is the government OK with the info being released or isn’t it?

Now the Rickards book may not be complete hogwash, although I suspect the economic events that have unfolded since its publishing are already undermining its arguments, which according to the video have something to do with QE3 being the straw that breaks the economy’s back. But the wallet-prying urgency that Newsmax attaches to the book is definitely complete hogwash!

As I said, I felt like I had seen these sorts of urgent warnings floating around longer than the supposed period of urgency. Thanks to Google’s time-filtering search tools, I was able to confirm this. In fact, it was worse than I thought – Newsmax/MoneyNews has been peddling the Rickards-based “financial Pearl Harbor” since at least last August. But that didn’t stop them from regurgitating that they were “recently tipped off regarding a ‘financial Pearl Harbor’ that will strike America in the next 60 days.”

Apparently the Federal Reserve is manipulating the calendar, too.

Incidentally, this email came from National Review, with the preface “Please find this special message from our sponsoring advertiser Moneynews.com.” I’m on this list because I subscribe to Jonah Goldberg’s G-File, which I find interesting and humorous. In general I consider National Review a pretty respectable conservative organization that I agree with more than half the time. I expect this kind of peddled nonsense from the Townhall email list I somehow got on, but not from them. I hope National Review realizes how they are risking their reputation by aligning themselves with such crap from their “sponsoring advertiser.”

Reasons For Pessimism 4-8

4. TSA Moves From Your Underwear To Your Starbucks. Wired reports: “Not content with fondling your privates and banning liquids from entering the concourse, the Transportation Security Administration is apparently now also screening liquids bought by passengers after they’ve already gone through regular security screening…” Because, you know, if you’re putting something you bought from the airport into your own mouth, there’s a chance you might have added explosives to it. Supposedly it’s nothing new, just “part of random screening techniques” that have been going on since 2007. Sounds to me like yet another example of overbroad TSA policies resulting in ridiculous real-world applications that protect against nothing while further expanding the citizen’s right to be harassed.
Silver Lining? The more coverage this stuff gets -> the greater demand for change -> the greater the chance of change.

Continue reading Reasons For Pessimism 4-8

Thank Government For Something: NASA

Sunday night, NASA’s Curiosity rover completed a ridiculously complicated landing sequence to safely grace the surface of Mars, where it is now beaming back exciting images and other data. I feel like this is a good time to thank our federal government for one of its few entities that I really enjoy – the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Continue reading Thank Government For Something: NASA

What I Missed

Or, Everything You Need To Know About Last Week’s News

In reverse order of importance:

Anderson Cooper is gay. Andy Griffith is dead. Justin Bieber got a speeding ticket. It’s probably the hottest and driest in most of the US since the 1930’s. Some think climate change is more to blame for this time than the last time. Some don’t.

Continue reading What I Missed

No More Blogging This Week.

I won’t be doing any more blogging this week. On the off chance that anything crazy happens while I’m gone and you’re actually curious about my opinion on the matter, feel free to leave comments here with requests. Or to talk amongst yourselves. Or to create spam for your acai berry products. I’ll probably be checking the comments though. If you get bored, check the sidebar for more interesting blogs written by more knowledgeable people. Thanks for visiting.

Thank Government For Something: United States Geological Survey

A month or two ago I got a book series on The Old West, and I’ve been reading parts from The Alaskans. For the most part, this history of the settlement and exploration of Alaska highlights the hard-working individualist spirit of nineteenth-century Americans. But when the coast dwellers attempt to explore the interior with their limited resources, they come across many obstacles, and progress is slow – until the federal government shows up:

Continue reading Thank Government For Something: United States Geological Survey