59. Solar power is still becoming more efficient at an incredible rate, and it could finally eclipse the equivalent energy costs of fossil fuels by the end of this decade, marching us into “a whole new world” of abundant, cheap energy.
60. More climate scientists are lowering their projections for global temperature rise.
55. Africa’s rapid economic development continues. “64 recent major discoveries of fuel deposits” will help the continent meet its growing energy needs, and connecting more Africans to the electric grid will save millions of lives from the respiratory illnesses caused by “kerosene lanterns and charcoal cookstoves,” among many, many other coming improvements to their standards of living.
56. At the other end of the spectrum, obesity may be declining in children of low-income families in the US.
57. Doctors have restored a man’s sight with adult stem cells.
58. SpaceX has successfully test-launched their reusable Grasshopper rocket at a new record height. It’s pretty cool to watch the rocket defy gravity as it calmly hovers and lands. SpaceX is working on fully reusable launch vehicles with the goal of making space travel dramatically cheaper.
See the latest from Expected Optimism for several more reasons for optimism.
50. Over Thanksgiving I randomly caught some segments of a (CNBC?) TV program about John Deere and the combines they design and manufacture. They are constantly working on new models that harvest crops more efficiently and more cheaply and are easier to repair and a host of other endless improvements. The show felt like a brief glimpse into the millions of quiet, incremental innovations that capitalism is constantly bringing us, and perhaps part of the reason we are still able to feed an entire planet despite the doomsayers of decades ago. It’s easy to get caught up in the big and more visible bad news and forget the subtle productivity improvements that are quietly advancing in thousands of industries year after year.
46. Poop Transplants Are Saving Lives. Um… self-explanatory.
47. A new report says the Marcellus Shale natural gas reserves are larger than expected. We’re still not running out of energy.
48. Volvo says that by 2014 they will have cars with low-speed autonomous following capability. The driverless revolution is coming.
49. Judge Protects Cellphone Data On 4th Amendment Grounds, Cites Government’s Technological Ignorance. Always nice when the judicial branch blocks the overreach of the other branches. It’s almost like how our government is supposed to work!
42. 3D Printers Are Reshaping Modern Medicine. Dude, we can print human tissue! We’re still “at least 10 years away” from literally printing new organs, but I’m amazed that it’s even on the horizon. Meanwhile, they’re figuring out how to help wounds heal quicker and how to use 3D-tissue models to test drugs quicker and cheaper than 2D models.
39. There are a lot of bad software patents out there that are probably restricting innovation. Stack Exchange has a new sub-site for crowd-sourcing patent applications to help find “prior art” for silly patents that aren’t really anything new. It’s hard to say how useful this will end up being, but I find two things very encouraging from a political perspective: 1) It was enabled by a small change to government patent law. 2) It was essentially the Patent Office director‘s idea.
30. A federal judge has struck down the “indefinite detention” in the NDAA as unconstitutional. It’s always encouraging to see the judicial branch actually checking the legislative branch’s attempt to give the executive branch unrestrained power. The battle is far from over, though, as it sounds like the Obama administration is challenging the decision. Still, it’s a hopeful sign for now.
31. The Senate might pass a bill requiring cops to get a warrant to read your e-mail. Of course, this little bit of overdue restraint might be offset by other news like the House’s extension of other warrantless surveillance powers or the latest former NSA official to come out and claim the “US is illegally collecting huge amounts of data on his fellow citizens,” but, hey, we’ll take what we can get.
32. There have been some encouraging polls concerning upcoming ballot measures in Washington and Colorado that would legalize marijuana and regulate it similarly to alcohol, with support at 57-34 and 51-40, respectively. The second link notes that California’s 2010 measure polled at 52% and still failed, but Washington’s support looks even stronger. I continue to view this as an inevitable trend.
23. Weather forecasts are becoming more accurate. No, seriously. “In 1972, the service’s high-temperature forecast missed by an average of six degrees when made three days in advance. Now it’s down to three degrees… Just 25 years ago, when the National Hurricane Center tried to predict where a hurricane would hit three days in advance of landfall, it missed by an average of 350 miles… Now the average miss is only about 100 miles.” Better forecasting means fewer cancelled trips and plans and wasted time and money, and – more importantly – fewer injuries and deaths from sudden storms (the chance of an American being killed by lightning is apparently down over 95% since 1940). The National Weather Service has always been one of my favorite parts of the federal government, and as technology improves along with their own experience, they’re more accurate and more useful than ever.
I’m fascinated by failed predictions of the coming apocalypse. In Christian circles, Edgar C. Whisenant is legendary for his 88 Reasons Why the Rapture Will Be in 1988, and – serving as its own punchline – the sequel arguing for 1989.
I recently read Larry Burkett’s The Coming Economic Earthquake, an early 90’s warning against the huge increase in debt that was sure to cause another Great Depression by 2000. Burkett didn’t foresee the budget surplus under Clinton or the sharp drop in interest rates that would allow the debt to quadruple past the amount he considered alarming.
I also recently saw 25-year-old predictions from science fiction writers in 1987 about what life would be like in 2012; they expected technological advances, but also war, hunger, crime, disease, and too many people and not enough resources. Most of the pessimism turned out to be too pessimistic.
It’s easy to write off apocalyptic predictions by religious conservatives or science fiction authors. But the elites of society have been just as wrong. Matt Ridley has an article in Wired detailing decades of failed predictions of doom and destruction by scientists, international organizations, politicians, and more.
A few advances this week in the awesome technologies that will probably change this decade…
20. A little girl with a rare disease can now use her arms thanks to a 3D printer. This is the most powerful single piece of evidence I have yet seen for my belief that 3D printing will change the world. It clearly demonstrates how someone’s life can be dramatically altered by the ability to cheaply print completely customized physical parts. It’s not clear to me whether the girl will need the exoskeleton for the rest of her life or if the assistance will enable her to developer her muscles to the point where she eventually will not need them.
